I attended a very interesting seminar this afternoon by Zoltan Dienes about unconscious knowledge. While the seminars focused more on how to assess unconscious knowledge, it was the underlying models about knowledge and decision making that caught my attention. Zoltan presented 4 basic ways of making decisions:
- Guessing
- Intuition (based on a subconscious understanding)
- Rules (based on a conscious understanding)
- Memory (based on identical previous situation)

Modes of decision making
It struck me that each of these are a compromise between accuracy and generalisability, as depicted in the illustration on the right. In formal education we tend to focus on rules. It all seemed logical at the time, but now I can’t help but wonder why.
I’m quite ok with ignoring guessing and memory, they represent extremes of the spectrum that either have very little accuracy, or very little applicability. But intuition actually seems very valid, especially ina world in which rules and facts are changing at an ever increasing speed.
Intuition is crucial in domains where rules are non-existent, or too complex to support a timely decision. But it is also important to recognise that intuition can be a precursor to a more conscious understanding of rules. In both cases, experience, wether actual or through games and simulations, are crucial media for learning. Ideally this learning should include at least 2 very different experiences based on the pattern we wish to develop. In the case of the further development and refinement of this intuition towards rules, these games could be followed by a meta game, or game analysis, in which rules are reconstructed.
This model is a replacement of the model that uses facts as a precursor to rules. That model perhaps had some validity in a more static world, requiring a highly specialised workforce. But today I think this has little value, and we are better off developing our instincts, then ourknowledge of facts.


